SIR Model for Spread Based on Cellular Automata and Delivery System Based on the Knapsack Model to Eradicate Ebola

  • Jinling Wei

Abstract

The paper researches how to eradicate the Ebola virus’s epidemic. To eradicate the spread of Ebola virus, we established SIR transmission model based on cellular automata (SIR/CA). This model divided the population into three states: susceptibility, infection and recovery. According to the historical data of WHO, the actual curve and the number of simulated cases were well fitted by MATLAB software. The number of possible future infections in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and other countries has been successfully predicted. Based on the predicted data, we estimate the demand for vaccines in these countries and the rate of vaccine production to come to the greatest requirement. When Ebola’s vaccines are in short supply, we build a knapsack-based delivery system (DS / KM) to solve the distribution problem. According to the destination of transportation, the epidemic trend of the virus, the location of treatment centers and laboratories and the severity of vaccinated patients, seven cities were identified as delivery sites for vaccines in order to obtain the best therapeutic effect to eliminate the spread of the Ebola virus outbreak.

Published
2019-07-15